1— capture a sample of the population, count them, mark them and release them.
2— after they've had time to mingle with the rest of the population, catch some more.
3— tot up the proportion of marked individuals in this 2nd sample, do some simple arithmetic, and you've got your total population size.
Now, there's a pressing need for field studies on the Cornish-speaking population, so as to find out, amongst many other things, how many there are and what kind of Cornish they speak. This sort of data could be vital for planning the future of the Revival, and present information is largely anecdotal. However, with a modification of the ecologist's method we've just looked at, what we can do is explore the likely truth or falsity of some ot the statistical claims made by the Keministas about the supposedly 'huge' proportion of Cornish speakers who speak KK. The raw data is all anecdotal (on both sides), and our logic is not quite of the staunchest, but let's see what we find.
A qualitative estimate is given by Myngow Vras in his post (#2754) cited above, where he said,
"nearly everyone seriously interested in taking Cornish forward changed to KK 18 years ago. The only people who clung to Nance's UC were a few old fossils who wanted to stick to what they knew, whether it was historically correct or not …They have been peddeling [sic] their wares for years now, and nobody really wants to know."
In summary, KK is spoken by 'nearly everyone' except 'a few old fossils' and 'nobody really'.
Don'cha just love the way this pissant wee nyaff dismisses with contempt the likes of Nance, Caradar, Talek, Len Truran, Donald Rawe, George Pawley-White, Bryan Webb, Dick Gendall and the rest —great people who devote their lives to the Cornish Revival? And from him all they get is his contempt, just because they don't favour his chosen KK spelling? Ha! And as for 'historically correct'— oh, my aching ribs that such a slur should come from him, the most dyslexic of all KKists!
To corroborate this picture, we need some pretty overwhelming statistics. And we find them, too, in accounts given by two other prominent Kemynites. The figures we have are 92% from Tim Saunders, and 98% from 'torontosteve', as the proportion of KK speakers out of the entire population of Cornish speakers. These statements are on record in the archives of the CornishOrthography group.
This gives non-KK speakers a mere 8% or 2% of the total. A conservative under-estimate of the total number of non-KK speakers is at least 100 according to their organisers and teachers (it is likely to be higher than this, but let's see where these figures take us).
KK speakers = 92%, non-KK = 8%,
… gives us a total Cornish-speaking population = (100/8) x 100 = 1,250
…or, KK speakers = 98%, non-KK = 2%,
… gives us a total Cornish-speaking population = (100/2) x 100 = 5,000
Which means either:
(a) the number of Cornish speakers is considerably larger than anyone has dreamed,
… or …
(b) the Kemynistas' 'statistics' are fake.
Me, I'm plumping for (b), and for this being yet another example of the Big Lies and disinformation we've come to expect from that quarter.
Postscriptum 1:
'pietercharles' has provided us with some alternative statistics (#2710), where he says that KK "is used by everyone I know that speaks Cornish bar half a dozen people." Cranking this figure through our equation, we end up with this fascinating conclusion:
no. of 'known' non-KK speakers = 6
% of speakers using KK = 92% …or… 98%
therefore, total 'known' speakers of Cornish = (6/8) x 100 …or… (2/8) x 100
i.e. total 'known' speakers = 75 …or… 40 persons
Well, the '40–75' speakers this KKist's 'statistics' give us is a heck of a lot less than the '1,250–5,000' of them implied by the two KKists cited above. Of course, it may just mean that PC needs to get out and socialise a bit more, or perhaps that non-KK speakers tend to avoid him and his barbarous idiolect. But it still makes his figure of "6" simple disinformation, even if true. And we're supposed to trust what this lot say? Ha! They're revealed by their own words as being strangers to the truth, and as ones who can't even agree on what lies to tell!
Postscriptum 2:
Keith Bailey has offered us yet another set of 'statistics' (#787), saying that "the KK "faction" represents something between 60%-95% of serious Cornish users":
no. of non-KK speakers = 6
% of non-KK speakers = 40% to 5% (based on KB's figures)
therefore, total no. of 'serious' speakers of Cornish = 15 to 120 persons
Now, it could be that KB just sets such high standards for his Cornish that very few people qualify as 'serious', no matter which version of the language they use. But looking at the grave flaws in his own Cornish and English, this hypothesis only seems tenable if he sets much higher standards for others than he does for himself.
Or it could be that in his assessment of 'seriousness' he takes a neutral stance on other forms of Cornish, and passes equally impartial judgement on all. But his frequent ranting diatribes against all other forms of the language but the one he favours make this hypothesis seem pretty shaky as well. After all, 'old fossils', 'troublemakers' and 'devious lying little shit-bags' wouldn't merit any impartiality, would they?
As regards his numbers, this guy's got a science Ph.D, which really had to have some maths in it. So you know you he's got to be numerate, and you should be able to take his stats without sniggering. But ya gotta love his weaselly confidence limits though, which go from …
… 'if we lose a few speakers, we're in the minority', to …
… 'if they lose a few, they go extinct!'
Can he really be surprised that someone felt it appropriate to modify his nom de plume from Mong-vras ('large mane') to Myngow Vras ('great lying-mouth'), so as to celebrate his truthfulness (or apparent lack thereof), rather than his matching hairiness (which rumour has it, if you'll pardon a gratuitously anecdotal argumentum ad personam tu quoque, lacks a little of the hirsute glory of his salad days, and is getting a tad scanty and moth-eaten in these his declining years)—or so we've heard. Sure, and it's only unsubstantiated gossipmongering, but as we say in Gaelic,
ma's fìor e thugam, 's fìor e bhuam
… loosely translated:
If the truth is what I heard, then that's what I'm telling.
… loosely translated:
If the truth is what I heard, then that's what I'm telling.
—::|::—
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